Geopolitics: With one incident after another
showing the Obama administration's lack of regard for allies, a
curious phenomenon is emerging. Countries with strategic importance
to the U.S. are drifting off. Surprised?
Fifteen months into President Obama's term, U.S. allies have had
time to draw conclusions about what "change"means.
For friends such as Israel's Bibi Netanyahu, it meant an
inhospitable visit to the White House. For revered religious
leaders, like the Dalai Lama, it meant a demeaning escort out the
White House back door, through garbage. A wartime partner, like
Afghanistan's Hamid Karzai, found himself loudly held up to public
scorn.
These aren't just gaffes. They're messages. And they're having an
effect. Some of the U.S.' most potentially useful new allies, such
as Ukraine, Colombia and India, democracies with high hopes for
close American ties, are now defensively moving away.
They're not becoming enemies. But they're getting distant —
electing leaders less eager to be friends and seeking alliances with
other big powers. One that stands out is Russia, the chess player of
nations, which grasps strategy (and empire) well.
In February, Ukraine elected Viktor Yanukovich prime minister,
following the Obama administration's scrapping of missile defense
and failure to bring Ukraine into NATO. Yanukovich has since
extended a Crimean port lease to Russia's Black Sea Fleet to 2042.
He's also taking Russian energy subsidies. Advantage: Russia.
There's also Colombia. Similar to Ukraine on NATO, Colombia had
high hopes of sealing its alliance with the U.S. with free trade.
The White House promised to act after health care reform became
law in March, but did nothing. Last week Colombia Trade Minister
Luis Plata told reporters in Canada he'd been had. Since then,
Colombia has signed curious trade deals with Russia.
At the same time, Colombia's presidential election campaign
shifted dramatically. A pro-U.S. candidate fell sharply in the polls
and an eccentric Green Party candidate, Antanas Mockus, rose to a
commanding lead. Mockus is no U.S. enemy, but he's made it clear
that Colombia's interests will be locally grown, tilting away from
us.
The same pattern is there with India, an ally of stunning
potential to U.S. interests. It also has begun signing trade and
defense deals with Russia. Why? Its diplomats have stated that free
trade with the U.S. is not likely because the Obama administration
isn't interested.
The overarching message that's gotten out is that it now pays
more to be America's enemy than its friend. Yet most democracies
don't want to become tyrannies with wrecked economies such as Syria
or Venezuela, which do get a friendly reception from Obama.
That's why we're seeing this diplomatic drift. For the U.S., this
drift is going to have strategic implications in years to come.
IBD 2010