Geopolitics: With one incident after another showing the Obama administration's lack of regard for allies, a curious phenomenon is emerging. Countries with strategic importance to the U.S. are drifting off. Surprised?

Fifteen months into President Obama's term, U.S. allies have had time to draw conclusions about what "change"means.

For friends such as Israel's Bibi Netanyahu, it meant an inhospitable visit to the White House. For revered religious leaders, like the Dalai Lama, it meant a demeaning escort out the White House back door, through garbage. A wartime partner, like Afghanistan's Hamid Karzai, found himself loudly held up to public scorn.

These aren't just gaffes. They're messages. And they're having an effect. Some of the U.S.' most potentially useful new allies, such as Ukraine, Colombia and India, democracies with high hopes for close American ties, are now defensively moving away.

They're not becoming enemies. But they're getting distant — electing leaders less eager to be friends and seeking alliances with other big powers. One that stands out is Russia, the chess player of nations, which grasps strategy (and empire) well.

In February, Ukraine elected Viktor Yanukovich prime minister, following the Obama administration's scrapping of missile defense and failure to bring Ukraine into NATO. Yanukovich has since extended a Crimean port lease to Russia's Black Sea Fleet to 2042. He's also taking Russian energy subsidies. Advantage: Russia.

There's also Colombia. Similar to Ukraine on NATO, Colombia had high hopes of sealing its alliance with the U.S. with free trade.

The White House promised to act after health care reform became law in March, but did nothing. Last week Colombia Trade Minister Luis Plata told reporters in Canada he'd been had. Since then, Colombia has signed curious trade deals with Russia.

At the same time, Colombia's presidential election campaign shifted dramatically. A pro-U.S. candidate fell sharply in the polls and an eccentric Green Party candidate, Antanas Mockus, rose to a commanding lead. Mockus is no U.S. enemy, but he's made it clear that Colombia's interests will be locally grown, tilting away from us.

The same pattern is there with India, an ally of stunning potential to U.S. interests. It also has begun signing trade and defense deals with Russia. Why? Its diplomats have stated that free trade with the U.S. is not likely because the Obama administration isn't interested.

The overarching message that's gotten out is that it now pays more to be America's enemy than its friend. Yet most democracies don't want to become tyrannies with wrecked economies such as Syria or Venezuela, which do get a friendly reception from Obama.

That's why we're seeing this diplomatic drift. For the U.S., this drift is going to have strategic implications in years to come.

IBD  2010